Short Starbucks (SBUX- NASDAQ, $57.50)

Here’s another ‘religion’ stock with a chart that has caught my eye. Starbucks is showing an obvious “Double V” pattern that I have found is often a pre-cursor to a downward move. What can I say about this company that hasn’t already been said. How about this – they ain’t exactly curing cancer. That move from $6 to $60 in 2 years ought to concern people; if the factors that led to the rise ever reverse, it won’t be too pretty. I could be wrong; so tight stop at $63.00.

Short Groupon (GRPN – NASDAQ, $11.70)

A bit of disclosure here: I can’t stand aeroplan miles, any kind of points cards, affinity progams, etc etc. To me these forms of marketing are so tricky that they verge on fraud. But I get that consumers love them for some reason (a lack of abilty to reason…). But the daily deal model really makes me shake my head. A really really really tricky coupon that I pay for in advance – my gosh, where do I sign up? Anyway, Groupon figured out what people want and so they’ve come a long way. But its a model that just can’t work; too easy to copy; too easy to replace – normal coupons anyone?. The chart looks bad. As always, because the Net has a way of making predictors look very wrong, we’ll have a tight stop of $13.50 in here.

Buy Staples (SPLS – NASDAQ, $15.70)

Staples is a big box retailer of electronics and office products. They are priced as such (P/S of 0.5 and P/E of 11). But they seem to be executing their online strategy very well. I buy a lot of electronics and I’ve switched away from Best Buy and the rest because service at Staples tends to be much better. Their online marketing and presence is working well for them as their percentage of sales online is increasing nicely. Is this a safe Net play? Who knows, so we’ll have our stops in at $12.00.

Buy VMware (VMW – NYSE, $105.00)

VMware is a global leader in virtualization and cloud infrastructure. They deliver solutions that accelerate IT by reducing complexity and enabling more flexible service delivery. They are a leader in the growing ‘cloud computing’ space. We think this space has nowhere to go but up; and this is a solid looking chart. We’ll stop it at $85.00.

Buy Wal-Mart (WMT – NYSE, $58.30)

A Fortune 100 company engaged in ethically questionable behaviour? OMG how shocking. My faith in the system has just been rocked. I think its just a sad commentary on North American culture that the Wal Mart business model has worked so well. Better value for consumers? Bullshit. One saves and lives well by buying less junk, not more and more junk at a cheaper per unit cost. Anyway, Wal-Mart is an institution that isn’t going away anytime soon. Its pulled back to strong support; we’ll enter here with a stop at $51.00.

Buy Exco (XCO – NYSE, $5.80)

Exco is a play on potentially rebounding Natural Gas prices. Natural Gas is currently at multi year lows; as is Exco. Exco is trading near its long term support line. The company has been the subject of takeover (unsuccesful) activity over the past couple of years at much higher valuations. The business is leveraged to a rise in Gas prices. This stock is not without its risks thats for sure, but the upside looks interesting. We’ll keep a stop on this at $4.40. If Gas prices continue to languish or go lower, Exco could disappear.

Buy LinkedIn (LNKD – NASDAQ, $101.00)

LinkedIN has behaved decently post IPO. Its a social media company that actually delivers social utility. By that I mean it provides something that is usefull in concrete terms to its subscribers. Not sure that can be said for the ‘cute dog’ sites. We’ll put a stop in $75.00 in case our genius analysis is incorrect lol omg.

Sell Apple (AAPL – NASDAQ, $591.00)

We did well with Apple, picking it almost exactly a year ago when it was $348.00. It has had a great ride since then, but its showing signs of increasing volatility. We’ll look for a pull back to the Mean (see chart), and then examine the possibilty of re-entry. I’m not going to weigh it on the ‘where Apple is going’ debat, other than to say that there is a lot of lovin’ going on!

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE – ABX) is the world’s largest gold mining company. It produced close to 8 million ounces in 2010 at an average cost of $457.00.
I am a gold bull, and I’m featuring this stock partially as a proxy for gold.
The stock exhibits what I call an LT 30 pattern – one of the most powerful patterns for large cap mainstream stocks. The trend line over a long period of time shows a steady upwards climb at about a 30 degree angle.
There’s no need for me to add my comments to the well established gold bull argument: one only has to look at that chart. Or read Roger Lambie!
As always, keep the stops close on the ‘big themes’

AM Gold (TSXV – AMG, $0.30) is a nice looking junior with two great gold projects. The chart shows a solid basing pattern with good support.
I particularly like their Yukon project which looks like it could get substantial. AM Gold has published some interesting looking drill results recently.
The company is well financed, and management is tenacious.
This stock seems to trade on its Peru property, but the Yukon is a sleeper.

Short Salesforce (CRM – NYSE, $155.00)

Salesforce is a major enterprise cloud computing application provider. The chart looks toppy to us and we feel comfortable shorting this stock due to its high valuation. There is a high outstanding short interest and this stock is a favourite of the shorts; so we’ll keep a tight stop on this of $173.00. Salesforce’s stock looks like it would be quite vulnerable to any kind of unexpected bad news.

Sell Cisco (CSCO – NASDAQ, $19.60)

Cisco has been a good performer; we’ll sell as it appears to be running into significant resistance (see left). We’ll look at re-visiting this one at the lower end of its range, or if it breaks through resistance on improving fundamentals.

Sell Google (GOOG – NASDAQ, $604.00)

Google’s chart looks vulnerable to our eyes. I can easily see this stock enter into a consolidation phase between $400.00 and $500 that could last for some time; even with improving/solid fundamentals. That combined with my impression that Google is not the unstoppable juggernaut it once was (not to mention valuation concerns), means that we sell. We entered the stock about 8 months ago at $580.00.

Here is one of my favourites chart patterns.
I call it the Multi-Year Upward Consolidation (MUC). We often see this chart in the case of solidly run companies, a little bit boring, that operate within a rapidly growing sector. SAP fits this picture perfectly.

SAP AG (SAP) is one of the largest independent software vendors
in the world and a leading provider of enterprise resource planning software

SAP s software helps clients improve customer relationships, enhance
collaboration, and improve efficiencies across supply chains and operations.

SAP s current P/E is 19, compared with about 55x average for the peer
Group. The stock looks cheap on a relative basis, and revenue/earning growth are good.
Details here

Actuate is the company responsible for the Eclipse BIRT open source project, which is an open source software that provides data visualizations for business information. As the chart shows, Actuate’s stock has been on a bull run since the summer of 2010. This has largely been due to exceptional revenue results from the company. For the past seven quarters, Actuates revenue has had positive growth, with the revenue actually doubling in one of the quarters. The most recent report showed Actuates revenue went up a further 12% from the second quarter of last year, totaling $33.7M for the quarter. Overall, the stock looks good to continue its growth. Subscribe to Bobby Chaim’s Research Reports for a full analysis.

Qualcomm’s stock is forming an ascending triangle at the $60.00 mark, signalling it is leading up to a breakthrough. This would mark a continuation of Qualcomm’s bull run since mid 2010. Qualcomm recently released their 3rd quarter results, which were strong with many factors, including revenue, beating analyst expectations. This should fuel Qualcomm enough to breakthrough the $60.00 mark and continue heading north.

Interdigital Inc. is set to auction off some 1,300 of its patents for mobile technologies, which has spurred many tech giants to battle over who gets to buy them, including Apple, Google and Samsung. Rumors have it these patents are worth more than Nortel’s patents, which went for $4.5 billion earlier in the year. If Interdigital Inc. sells off these patents at anywhere close to the same price, the company will most likely dole out a huge special dividend to their shareholders. Also, in late July, Interdigital’s stock broke away from its previous $40-48 range on news the company was considering being bought by Google.

Salesforce.com has been surging in price for years, more than doubling since 2010 alone. Now, the price currently resides just below the $150.00 mark, which has and will continue to act as strong resistance for the stock going forward. Since mid-march, however, the stock has established a trend of higher highs and higher lows signalling the continuation of its previously bullish momentum. The stock’s next move will be all important as it will determine whether it will go on an extended bull run above $150, or if the stock is going to stay below the resistance point of $150.00. Watch to see if the stock’s lows hang below $135, as this will indicate a probable end to the bull run.

In the past 6 months, the CEO of China Techfaith Wireless (CNTF) has purchased 363,000 shares at roughly a $4 valuation, spending a total of approximately $1.4 million; the CEO has also committed to buying more shares come August and September. The employers and management have also invested roughly $7 million into the company’s gaming subsidiary, which has grown from $1.5 million in quarterly sales to $9.9 million this year. The fact that insiders are buying the company’s stock is a very strong buy signal for this stock. Until the stock breaks away, it will most likely continue to bounce between resistance at $4.80 and support at $3.80. For a full analysis of the China Techfaith Wireless, subscribe to Bobby Chaim’s Research Reports.

The popular internet radio company Pandora Media Inc. launched their IPO last month at $16 a share. On its first day of trading, the stock rocketed up to a high of $26 before diving down to a low of $12.16 two days later. Since then, the stock has tried out a range around and just under $20, but has since fallen down again. The stock currently resides at $13.87 and if it continues to drop further it will most likely find support around the previous lows of roughly $13.00. Since investors can really only gain insight into this company via their SEC filings, this stock is very much a guessing game, especially since the company is still not profitable. Until the stock releases some quarterly reports, expect this stock to maintain its uncertainty.

Calamp Corp. (CAMP), a major wireless communications maker, recently released their Q1 FY2012 earnings report. Most notably, the company’s gross margins have been increasing significantly; this is mostly due to a shift in the company’s focus from its satellite business to its wireless division. After the release of the earnings report, the company’s stock broke through the rectangular formation it was previously in and now appears to be consolidating into another one. The stock has recently established resistance around $4.00 and it may be finding support around the $3.50 level.

Sirius Xm Radio has been on a large bull run since the beginning of 2009. After crashing down to a low $0.05, the stock has rallied up to the $2.00 mark and looks poised to continue running further. The stock recently broke out of a bullish pennant formation that occurred in the middle of 2010 and has recently started to form another bullish pennant formation. These stock formations are indications that the market is consolidating gains at these stable price levels ($1 and $2, respectively), before pursuing its bullish momentum further. We can expect to see the stock break up and out in the coming months.

The flag formation in Altera’s stock signals that it has entered a brief period of consolidation, but will continue its rally in a few months. This consolidation follows a strong bull run that has been going on since the beginning of 2009. Currently, the stock resides around its 2nd highest peak within the $40-50 price range. The last time Altera’s stock was at this price level was during the tech boom of the early 2000′s. The $40.00 price level will act as support for the stock going forward. Subscribe to Bobby Chaim’s Research Reports for a full analysis.

Baidu Inc., mostly known for their Chinese language search engine, has rocked up in value over the past two years. Since the beginning of 2010, Baidu’s stock has quadrupled in value! This is a staggering gallup. Even more staggering is that many analysts expect the company to continue its meteoric rise. With its Q2 results out and looking good, it seems Baidu very well might reach the $200.00 mark by the end of the year.

Juniper’s stock formed a pennant early in June after breaking out from its previously bearish run. The pennant stock pattern typically signifies a brief period of consolidation before the stock continues its previous trend, which in this case is the strong bear trend from earlier in the year. This was confirmed when the stock broke out of the pennant formation to continue its collapse after the company released poor Q2 earnings. As the stock continues to fall, expect it to find support around its previous lows of around $22.00.

Cisco’s stock has been dropping since May of last year from a high of around $27 down to the most recent low of $14.78. Since the beginning of June, however, the stock appears to have broken out of its previously bearish behaviour and has initiated a new bull run. Many analysts have established a new Buy rating for Cisco and expect the stock to run up above the $20.00 mark. Cisco will be releasing its 2011 Q4 and full year earnings report on August 10th. Subscribe to Bobby Chaim’s Research Reports for a full analysis.

F5 Networks has been rallying strong since 2009. Since the beginning of 2011, however, the stock has formed a pennant as it consolidates its recent gains. Expect the stock to continue to consolidate around the $100.00 mark, but look for an eventual breakthrough as the stock stands to further its bull run.

There’s a Head and Shoulders pattern occurring in Oracle’s stock right now. This is a textbook stock pattern that indicates a probable trend reversal for the stock, especially if its during a bull run, like the one Oracle has been on since the summer of 2010. Watch for a breakthrough in the neckline during the coming weeks as the buyers become exhausted and selling kicks in.

In one of the biggest IPO’s the tech world has ever seen, LinkedIn began its public trading at a stunning $83 valuation in May of this summer; since then, the stock has bounced high and low trying to establish its proper value. The stock currently resides above the psychologically important $100.00 mark, which will provide support for it going forward, but there is also resistance against the stock at the $110.00 mark. This may cause the stock to bounce between these two markers while the market decides on a definitive direction to take. A breakthrough at the $110.00 mark would be extremely bullish for this stock, however, there a lots of voices crying overvaluation! Seeing as the company is not yet profitable, it seems more likely for the stock to dip back below the $100.00 mark.

AT&T stock rocketed up 10% in April, bringing its valuation above the psychologically important threshold of $30.00. This price level has been acting as support for the stock in the last couple months as it bounces back and forth between $30.00 and $32.00. This has formed a Rectangular pattern, indicating a continuation of the previous bullish trend. With AT&T’s earnings report beating analyst expectations, it seems likely that the stock will break through the $32.00 price level and use it as support going forward.

A Falling Wedge pattern has been forming in GE’s charts since mid-February, temporarily halting a bull run that started in the summer of 2010. Typically, these patterns indicate a pause in the overall trend of the stock with a resumption of the trend shortly afterwards. With GE’s second quarter results out, indicating a 21.6% gain in profit from last year and an increased EPS over analyst expectations, it’s likely we will see the stock quickly resume its bull run.

IBM has been on a long bull run since the summer of 2010 and with strong results from their second quarter, the company looks poised to continue growing. The company’s revenue is up 12% from last year and their Earnings per Share is up 18% to $3.09 per share. These results largely outperformed most analyst estimates and the stock has seen a corresponding jump in valuation. With their sales still strong and many new products in the pipeline, IBM looks ready to continue its growth spurt.

Nokia began making mobile phones in the mid 1980′s and by the summer of 2007, when Apple first released their IPhone,  Nokia was the biggest player in the market. But now, with Apple’s further advances and Google’s entrance into the market, Nokia has been getting hit hard. This past quarter, Nokia reported an operating loss of  €487 million, which, compared to the €295 million operating profit from last year, marks an incredible downfall. Nokia needs to come out with something fast, or risk seeing their sales deteriorate further.

Hewlett-Packard has been in a long bear run since mid-march, dropping from just under $50 to around $35, totaling a 30% loss. The stock was punished following a leaked memo that indicated a tough quarter and revised expectations for the stock. Recently, however, the stock has broken through this bear trend and, with strong fundamentals still in place, the stock looks poised to regain lost ground. If the stock starts heading back up, the next point of resistance will be the runaway gap between $37.60 and $39.60

Google’s stock has been on a very strong bearish trend since the beginning of the year, but results from their second quarter have since rocketed the stock back up to just under $600.00. The quick jump in the stock created a runaway gap from $550-588, which will act as support for the stock going forward. The stock looks poised to begin a long bull run as Google’s fundamentals are still strong and some of their new products, like Google+, are starting to pick up steam. For a full report on Google’s stock, Subscribe to Bobby Chaim’s Pro Service.

Amazon is continuing its bull run with continued higher highs and higher lows. However, recent less-than-expected income returns have and will continue to cause the stock to be bearish for a little while. Realistically, the new figures show Amazon is actually in great shape, with 38% more net sales than last year. The lower-than-expected income is due to Amazon’s new investments and continued expansion (and thus greater operating costs). As the stock regresses a bit, the $200 price level will be used to provide support for the stock going down.

RIM (Research in Motion Ltd.) is the company responsible for the Blackberry products. For some time now, RIM’s been under pressure from the stiff competition in the smartphone and tablet markets, especially Apple’s recent advances in these markets. The chart below shows that the stock has had a long bearish run in the past few months and has just broken out and under it in the past few days. The large gap between 30 and 35, will start to act as resistance for the stock heading up. Most likely RIM still has a few more price points to drop before, or if, any turn-around occurs.

IBM has been on a record strong bull run since mid 2010, bringing the stock to up around $165, far surpassing the company’s previous high of $138. A lot of the enthusiasm for IBM’s stock lately has been fuelled by a trend towards blue-chip stocks in general, as they are seen as a safe haven in this weak and volatile market. Being over a 100 years old and bringing in more than $100 billion in revenue, IBM has proved itself as one of the strongest blue-chip stocks out there. For a good, stable return on investment, IBM is still a solid pick.

Intel’s stock recently broke through an Ascending Triangle Formation, testing the $24.00 price level. The stock has since come back down to within the Triangular pattern, but the overall trend is still bullish. The Runaway Gap between $20 and $20.90 will act as support for the stock if it continues to head south.

An Ascending Triangle pattern has formed in Netflix’s stock over the past few months. We should see it break hard one way or the other in the next couple of days. Most likely the stock will break up and through the psychologically significant $250 mark, which will then act as support for the stock going forward.

Electronic Arts is the world’s largest computer game company.  They were slow to adapt to a new gaming landscape and were punished, but they seem to be turning things around.

Dell looks like it has bottomed out and has some room for appreciation.

Balance sheet is solid, insiders are buying, earnings growth is good.

Stop out at $13.80

Although June is supposed to be the end of the Fed’s QE2 program, better known as the money printing scheme, the actual money supply is poised to still grow. No Fed official has announced that any tightening would happen and all concur that proceeds of the Fed’s investments that end up returning to the Fed will be replanted back into the economy. Since the Fed’s investments are earning fixed returns, this means the money supply will continue to grow. Under these circumstances, it is difficult to imagine gold and silver will have a tough time maintaining their momentum or at least sustaining recent gains. A global headwind could set things off-track shortly, as investors run to US dollars for short term liquidity, but this will be no more than another great buying opportunity as the Fed is more set than ever to push the monetary spigot back into full  force soon after.

Central Banks and Investors Piling Up on Gold

Sell Cabot Oil and Gas (COG – NASDAQ, $591.00)

This is a sell based on a sloppy looking chart formation I call CAB (Consolidation At Best). The chart at left says it all. Still looks like a good company, but we should have let this one go after the run up previously; anyway, lets not let this one turn into a loser.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters’ stock has shot up over 300% since the beginning of the year. Along the way, the stock has created many gaps that will act as support levels if the stock ever falls back to them. The most important gaps are between 97 and 100 as well as 68 and 72. The stock recently gapped below the 97-100 gap again, which will start acting as resistance for the stock going up. This point will be especially sticky considering the gap was hopped over twice and the psychological importance of the $100 mark will incite sellers.

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) is the world’s largest producer of potash. At the beginning of 2011, the stock broke out of its flag formation, just under the $50.00 mark and has begun fluctuating between $65.00 and $50.00. The $50.00 level is now acting as very strong support for the stock. Previous to this, POT had been on an extended bull run since the stock market crash in late 2008. If the market can hold, Potash Corp. looks ready to continue its run.

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Cabot Oil has made giant strides recently, more than tripling their stock’s value in just 12 months. The stock reached a high of $78.94 in late June, but has since rebounded from the $80.00 psychological barrier and is testing out new lows around the $60.00 price range. Cabot Oil has been fuelled recently by their excellent earnings report released last month, which detailed an increase in sales of 23% and an increase in earnings of 116%. The recent rebound is mostly due to the falling oil and gas prices, but the company itself is solid. For a full analysis, Subscribe to Bobby Chaim’s Research Reports.

Chesapeak’s stock has grown almost 300% since its lows in mid-2009, following the stock crash. The stock still maintains a bullish momentum, but has been fighting resistance at the $36 price level. The chart is starting to look like a double top pattern, which would indicate a reversal of its momentum, but it would be a mistake to believe that this is occurring right now. A true double top pattern wont occur until the leading arm of the stock breaks through the $28.00 mark. If this happens, then the stock will continue to plummet until the next support line around $27.00 or $25.00. The stock, however, has great fundamentals and a good earnings report should continue to push it upwards. If the stock does find its way to the $28.00 mark, which would mostly be due to a poor overall global economic performance, I believe that it will use this mark as support and bounce off, returning to higher valuations. Subscribe to Bobby Chaim’s Research Reports for a full analysis.

Mirroring their competitors stock (Caterpillar Inc.), Joy Global’s stock has also been forming a flagpole formation. The stock is consolidating its gain from earlier in the year, but looks poised to breakthrough for another bull run. Both Caterpillar Inc and Joy Global compete within the same industry and both have released impressive earnings reports in the second quarter, but of the two Joy Global’s stock has the greatest sustainable growth rate at 30%, compared to Caterpillar Inc’s 22.8%. Both stocks are good buys, but Joy Global appears to be running their company more efficiently.

Caterpillar Inc. is one of the largest manufacturers of engines and machinery worldwide and has been on a long bull run since early 2009. Just a couple weeks ago, Caterpillar released their Q2 results indicating a strong second quarter. Despite this, the stock took a brief dip because investors were expecting the same exceptional results that their Q1 results delivered; this was the 1st time in 10 quarters that the company’s profits were lower than expectations. Since then, however, the stock has bounced back. The stock is forming a typical flagpole formation indicating that it is in a brief period of consolidation but that it will most likely continue the bull run it was most recently on. Subscribe to Bobby Chaim’s Research Reports for a full analysis.